- Title
- Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
- Creator
- Atkinson, Jo-An; Knowles, Dylan; Wiggers, John; Livingston, Michael; Room, Robin; Prodan, Ante; Mcdonnell, Geoff; O'Donnell, Eloise; Jones, Sandra; Haber, Paul S.; Muscatello, David; Ezard, Nadine; Phung, Nghi; Freebairn, Louise; Indig, Devon; Rychetnik, Lucie; Ananthapavan, Jaithri; Wutzke, Sonia; Conigrave, K; Rissel, C; Coates, P; Moore, R; Gupta, L; Renshaw, F; Price, K; Mitchell, J; Whitlam, G; Lewis, N; Heffernan, M; Lambert, M; Redman, S; Shiell, A; Penza, L; Wilson, A
- Relation
- International Journal of Public Health Vol. 63, Issue 4, p. 537-546
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y
- Publisher
- Frontiers Research Foundation
- Resource Type
- journal article
- Date
- 2018
- Description
- Objectives: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. Methods: A consortium of Australia’s leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. Results: A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.
- Subject
- agent-based modelling; alcohol-related harm; prevention policy; evidence synthesis; SDG 3; Sustainable Development Goals
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1472958
- Identifier
- uon:48957
- Identifier
- ISSN:1661-8556
- Rights
- This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
- Language
- eng
- Full Text
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